Fuel market pricing policies

Fuel markets in about half the world are liberalized, while in the other half, the government sets the prices. However, if regulated prices are adjusted frequently and in line with oil prices, they may behave like liberalized prices. Conversely, liberalized prices may not respond much to oil prices in countries with high excise taxes, as the tax is a fixed amount per liter of fuel. Then, regulated prices have greater variability than liberalized prices. A few examples and then we group countries based on policy:





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Measuring Policy

We use four metrics to capture differences across countries.
  • Price level: High if greater than 130 percent of the world average, low if less than 70 percent, and medium otherwise.
  • Price flexibility: Computed as the percentage of weeks with a non-zero price change during the last 52 weeks. Max value is 1 when prices changed each week, and min is 0 if there were no changes. High if the value is greater than 0.66, low if less than 0.34, and medium otherwise.
  • Correlation with oil prices: Correlation with Brent prices using monthly data for the last four years. High if greater than 0.75, low if less than 0.5, and medium otherwise.
  • Pass through: The estimated coefficient from a simple model of changes in fuel prices on changes in Brent oil prices and the USD exchange rate over a three-month period using the last four years of data. High if a 10 percent change in oil prices leads to a greater than 4 percent change in fuel prices, low if less than 2 percent, and medium otherwise.
Notes: The threshold values are selected to highlight the key patterns in the distribution of countries in the various groups, but we can provide grouping with alternative thresholds upon request. The values on this page change automatically when we update the data in our database. However, the general patterns are quite persistent. Also, we report findings using gasoline prices, but diesel prices exhibit similar behavior.


Grouping Countries

The table shows the number of countries in the various policy groups. Many countries are in the medium category in terms of their price level, which suggests fairly similar prices across most countries. In contrast, most countries are in the low and high categories for price flexibility, i.e. they either allow prices to move or restrict them quite a bit. The correlation with oil prices is generally high while the pass-through levels vary considerably.

Category Price level Price flexibility Oil price correlation Pass-through
High 19 52 49 53
Medium 83 16 30 15
Low 15 49 38 49


Individual Country Policies

The following table shows the categorization for each individual country using the definitions outlined above.

Country Price level Price flexibility Oil price correlation Pass-through
Andorra Medium High High High
Argentina Medium High Low Low
Aruba Medium Low High High
Australia Medium High High High
Austria Medium High High High
Barbados High Low Medium Low
Belarus Low Low Low Low
Belgium Medium High High High
Benin Medium Low Low Low
Bosnia and Herzegovina Medium Medium High High
Brazil Medium High Medium Low
Bulgaria Medium High High High
Burkina Faso Medium Low Low Low
Burma (Myanmar) Medium High Low Low
Cambodia Medium Low High High
Cameroon Medium Low Low Low
Canada Medium High High High
Cape Verde Medium Low High High
Cayman Islands Medium Medium Medium Low
Chile Medium High Low Low
China Medium Medium High High
Colombia Medium Low Low Low
Costa Rica Medium Low High High
Croatia Medium High High High
Curacao Medium Low High High
Cyprus Medium High High High
Czech Republic Medium High High Low
Denmark High High High High
Dominican Republic Medium Low Medium Low
Ecuador Low Low Low Low
Egypt Low Low Low Low
El Salvador Medium Medium Medium Medium
Estonia Medium Medium High High
Fiji Medium Low Medium Medium
Finland High High High High
France High High Medium High
Georgia Medium Medium High High
Germany High High High High
Ghana Medium Low Low High
Greece High High High High
Grenada Medium Low Low Low
Guatemala Medium High High High
Guyana Medium Low Medium High
Honduras Medium High High High
Hong Kong High Low Low Low
Hungary Medium High Low Low
Iceland High High Medium Medium
India Medium Low Medium Low
Indonesia Low Low High Low
Ireland High High High Medium
Israel High Low Low Medium
Italy High High Medium Medium
Ivory Coast Medium Low Low Low
Jamaica Medium High High High
Japan Medium High Low Low
Jordan Medium Low Medium Low
Kenya Medium Low Low Low
Laos Medium Low Low Low
Latvia Medium High High High
Lebanon Low High Low Low
Lesotho Medium Low Medium High
Lithuania Medium High High High
Luxembourg Medium High High High
Macedonia del norte Medium High High Low
Madagascar Medium Low Low High
Malawi Medium Low Low Low
Malaysia Low Low Low Low
Mauritius Medium Low Medium Medium
Mayotte High Low Medium Low
Mexico Medium High Low Low
Moldova Medium High High Low
Montenegro Medium Medium Medium High
Mozambique Medium Low Low Low
Namibia Medium Low Low Medium
Nepal Medium Low Medium Low
Netherlands High High High High
New Zealand Medium High Medium High
Nicaragua Medium Low Medium Medium
Norway High High Medium Low
Oman Low Low Medium Low
Pakistan Low Low Low Low
Panama Low Medium High High
Peru Medium Medium High High
Philippines Medium High High High
Poland Medium High Medium Medium
Portugal High High High High
Puerto Rico Medium High High High
Qatar Low Low Medium Low
Romania Medium High High Medium
Russia Low Medium Low Low
Rwanda Medium Low Low High
Saint Lucia Medium Low Low Low
Saudi Arabia Low Low Medium Low
Serbia Medium Medium Medium Low
Sierra Leone Medium Low Low Low
Singapore High Medium High High
Slovakia Medium High High High
Slovenia Medium Medium Medium High
South Africa Medium Low Medium Medium
South Korea Medium High High Low
Spain Medium High High High
Sri Lanka Medium Low Low High
Suriname Medium Medium Low Low
Sweden Medium High High Low
Switzerland High High High High
Taiwan Medium High Medium Medium
Tanzania Medium Low Low Low
Thailand Medium High Medium High
Turkey Medium High Low High
Ukraine Medium High Low High
United Arab Emirates Low Low High High
United Kingdom High High High Medium
Uruguay High Low Medium High
USA Low High High High
Vietnam Low Medium High Low
Zambia Medium Low Low Medium
Zimbabwe Medium Medium Low Low


Country Level Metrics

Select a country to see the actual values of the metrics used above, as well as some additional metrics.



Variable Value


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Questions and Comments

This page has been developed by Neven Valev. Please contact him with any questions, comments or suggestions via LinkedIn or at [email protected].


Further Reasings and Resources

Hankla, C., Rioja, F., & Valev, N. (2023). The political economy of "green" regulation: Evidence from fuel price markets. Comparative Politics, 56(1), 73–94. link.

Kpodar, K., & Imam, P. A. (2021). To pass (or not to pass) through international fuel price changes to domestic fuel prices in developing countries: What are the drivers? Energy Policy, 149. link.

Strand, J. (2013). Political economy aspects of fuel subsidies: A conceptual framework. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, No. 6392. Washington, DC. link.





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